Facebook and the wisdom of the swarm

Facebook and the wisdom of the swarm

Screenshot from the portal of the NASDAQ three hours after borseneneroffnung on 21.5.2012

From the gap between the officially widespread swarmsfeeding and their perception in decision-makers

In democracy, the wisdom of many of the best used bases is. Currently, not only sarrazin drives german democracy towards referendum over the euro, but also editors react largely only on topics that seem to guarantee the majority consent in the form of popularity, at least attention. In the case of facebook, however, the wisdom of the swarm can be measured in the short term – we use this opportunity for the field research of schwarzommittelligenz.

A person can be wrong. But may be 900 million people? 1939 they could. With around 100 million victims of overall, the II became. World war to the biggest massacre organized by people in their own kind. But no one has known some intellectuals.

900 million facebook residents, on the other hand, are much more positive in a so-called social web. There is a need for a secure portion of ignorance against collective customs, if one believes, the harmless "llike it"-reject fashion.

Set the case, the 900 million facebook participants are real, their motives – see also under "arabic spring" are hehr and demand the democracy, their "likes" are one of the most harmless forms of mass psychosis – what is talking about the economic success of facebook? Actually nothing. This record also reached those 93 percent of equity speculators, which are as a participant of the NASDAQ evaluation system at borseneroffnung on monday as "bullish" to the stock with the short FB known.

That "community sentiment", so the wisdom of the swarm, it is intended to ensure that the shepherds and individual interests of the handlers and analysts do not obstruct the objectivitat of the evaluation. On the 23.05.In 2012, the number had already fallen to 84 percent – a surprisingly slow response to the course breakdown of the last three days. We will be tracked in the obsumption, as share price and swarms of flighting behavior.

Numbers from 21.5. And 23.5 but still tell us less about the facebook share, for that all the more about the wisdom of the swarm:

  1. It is characterized by soviet majorities, D.H., it usually results in a majority opinion. A 50/50 gives rarely rare.
  2. Her representatives are consistently master of their subject, such as analysts and journalists, specialists and otherwise qua experience occupational.
  3. It takes a surprisingly long until the swarm revides a once-afraid.

In the combination of the three features listed here, the financial crisis of 2008 will be explained by the financial crisis – but not as a benching bubble, but as an expression of structures of collective opinion formation.

An example: not only are not only the three US rating agencies standard poor’s, moody’s and fitch, but also the german and the swiss government as well as their central banks are convinced that US bonds are at least one AA + value. You can hardly complain about missing transparency, because SP discloses his criteria.

Different reviews that the USA at CCC will be officially ignored, although under the chief economists and research leaders behind katched hand are mostly doubt in the official rating.

So there is a gap between the officially widespread swarmsfeitness and their perception in decision-makers. But only through this cap, however, explain why facebook shares have been massively stabbed at least three days, although the analyst majority believed to rise.

Anyway, the suddeutsche zeitung quickly matched her readers a day before boron with the coarsely recommendation of the apple co-primer wozniak: "steve wozniak’s recommendation is clear: he will buy facebook shares, no matter what price. The 62-year-old has to know." for attentive telepolis readers: the "got to" please like that "got to" read from lahm and hoeneb to bayern victory.

But if it does not matter what a price is to be purchased or sold, this could be a serious notice to the quality of collective flocking.

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